MSR Decode
MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №24 of 25

filthybetz

0xc6a63ad5a788a576d4acc9911c50fef9fde49458

$961K · 30-day displayed profit

Insufficient evidence

The book is the wallet’s own — it just doesn’t reconcile closely enough. The rebuilt figure lands outside the ±15% band we publish as the condition for the stamp, so we don’t certify an edge on it.

Not copyable

Polymarket displayed
$961K
MSR reconstructed
$816K
84.96% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle — including the ones we got wrong — is published in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
92.9%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
7.1%

Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): reconstructs to 84.96% of displayed profit — 15.04 points from par, outside the ±15% band the scorecard publishes as the condition for the stamp. The figure is built from the wallet's own fills; it simply does not land inside our promise.

This wallet was stamped Real edge — copyable when the scorecard first published. Its reconstruction is substantially the wallet’s own fills — no open-book mark is carrying it — but it does not land inside the ±15% band we publish as the condition for the stamp. We corrected the verdict on 2026-07-16 rather than widen the promise to fit. The dated correction, the arithmetic, and the accuracy numbers this does not change are in the reconstruction workpaper.

8067 fills · 42 markets · avg buy $0.462 · top market: Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Get the full Decode Report on filthybetz — the fill-by-fill ledger, the mechanism decomposition, and the written argument for the verdict.

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