MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №10 of 25
muchobliged
0x095fbca2e0eaf0c9841005135427e1e0117190b2
$2.0M · 30-day displayed profit
Real edge
The profit reconstructs and the mechanism is copyable. Whether it’s copyable by you — sizing, timing, liquidity — is what the full report is for.
Copyable
Polymarket displayed
$2.03M
MSR reconstructed
$1.79M
88.1% of displayed
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle — including the ones we got wrong — is published in the reconstruction workpaper.
Directional
100%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
0%
88% reconstruction; concentration flag, still directional.
6296 fills · 20 markets · avg buy $0.541 · top market: France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5
Get the full Decode Report on muchobliged — the fill-by-fill ledger, the mechanism decomposition, and the written argument for the verdict.
Nominate the next public decode