MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №16 of 25
ndb1
0xfea31bc088000ff909be1dfd8d0e3f2c7ef2d227
$1.2M · 30-day displayed profit
Artifact
The number is real; the edge isn’t. This profit came from structure a copier can’t inherit.
Not copyable
Polymarket displayed
$1.18M
MSR reconstructed
$1.53M
130.1% of displayed
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle — including the ones we got wrong — is published in the reconstruction workpaper.
Directional
58.5%
Post-resolution
35.4%
Bilateral (two-sided)
6.1%
35% of buys placed at ≥$0.99 — redemption arbitrage, not edge.
46458 fills · 1302 markets · avg buy $0.707 · top market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20
Get the full Decode Report on ndb1 — the fill-by-fill ledger, the mechanism decomposition, and the written argument for the verdict.
Nominate the next public decode