MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №11 of 25
weatherman12
0xd1c537b2a7cba8d365e111bffb9de7b205e2cbd0
$1.8M · 30-day displayed profit
Real edge
The profit reconstructs and the mechanism is copyable. Whether it’s copyable by you — sizing, timing, liquidity — is what the full report is for.
Copyable
Polymarket displayed
$1.82M
MSR reconstructed
$1.82M
99.8% of displayed
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle — including the ones we got wrong — is published in the reconstruction workpaper.
Directional
97.6%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
2.4%
100% reconstruction, textbook directional across 41 markets.
9898 fills · 41 markets · avg buy $0.568 · top market: Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5
Get the full Decode Report on weatherman12 — the fill-by-fill ledger, the mechanism decomposition, and the written argument for the verdict.
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